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Author Tvalchrelidze, Alexander G.
Affiliation Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Chavchavadze Ave., 1079 Tbilisi, Georgia
E-mail sandrotval@gmail.com
Author Silagadze, Avtandil
Affiliation Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Chavchavadze Ave., 1079 Tbilisi, Georgia
E-mail sandrotval@gmail.com
ISSN printed 1733-8670
URI https://repository.scientific-journals.eu/handle/123456789/2641
Abstract At the beginning of the COVID-19 coronavirus global pandemic, the oil market was crushed. In this period, the oil market was correlated with COVID-19 coronavirus world infection cases: more infected cases resulted in low oil prices, and the negative correlation between these two indices was very strong. Different factors determined the increase in both crude oil price and the number of oil futures contracts after April 20. Firstly, oil prices were driven by the coronavirus mortality rate, rather than by the absolute number of infection cases. The decisive driver for oil prices in the medium-term became pandemic development trends, instead of the actual epidemiological situation. This statement is proven by the statistical regression model of the interdependence between oil prices and COVID-19 coronavirus world mortality rate. Secondly, a gradual stable decrease in the coronavirus world mortality rate created an environment for the gradual restart of the world economy. Thirdly, the coronavirus mortality rate analysis provides investors with tangible guidelines to assess the medium-term sustainability of futures markets and, therefore, to elaborate investment strategies. Fourthly, after April 20, the oil market gradually achieved equilibrium, which is proven by a restored correlation between oil prices and the Euro-to-U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Three-month tendencies provide tangible guidelines for an optimistic forecast of the oil the market and maritime tanker business for the end of 2020 and all of 2021. So long as a new wave of COVID-19 does not dramatically increase mortality rates, the oil and maritime tanker trade market will regain the equilibrium it lost at the end of January.
Pages 97-103
Publisher Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin, Zeszyty Naukowe Akademia Morska w Szczecinie
Keywords COVID-19
Keywords coronavirus
Keywords pandemic
Keywords oil price
Keywords tanker
Keywords correlation
Keywords regression equation
Keywords mortality rate
Title Influence of COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on international oil markets
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ISSN on-line 2392-0378
Language English
Funding No data
Figures 7
Tables 2
DOI 10.17402/444
Published 2020-09-16
Accepted 2020-09-30
Recieved 2020-08-01

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